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The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day
PDF Download The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day
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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 8 hours and 32 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Unabridged
Publisher: Macmillan Audio
Audible.com Release Date: February 11, 2014
Whispersync for Voice: Ready
Language: English, English
ASIN: B00I3LJAI6
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
Some good stuff and some food for thought in this book. There were fun things I've never heard of, such as the "monster" number, and the obscure mysteries of Pi number (and that is not for ' private investigator'). Since most likely myself consist of 78% scientist and 22% mystic (but a really big whopping, power-packed mystic %), I can appreciate the bulk of the material in this book which covers a "fun with numbers" gamut, but the more loose sort of material in the bookl - that bald, "sock-it-to-me-in-your-gut" type of material (if you are paying attention)..well, Wow. The one sentence in the whole book which struck me as rock bottom canyon floor truth for all the fun with numbers (which was steadily melting into the sea of mystic floor), was when Hand said out-loud that there was "something about books". " Yigghhh! cries the indigent Indian who believes in dreams!"(my quote). Something about books, eh? At least one other reviewer in amazon review replied with a tale of a book which travels back to its original owner. Does this book have volition? Is it always meaninglessly coincidental when these things happen, Mr. Hand, per your improbability model? You mostly seem to be implying that it is meaningless, though that one sentence gives your sentiment away...."There is something about books." Indeed there is. And there is something about visions of angels which appear to people in distress, or people who might serve as rescuers. Well, unfortunately, this book only reaches about one quarter of its audience, and maybe those who are 50% scientist and 50% mystic.
You are at the craps table and the 12 rolls four times in a row. The odds of that happening are immense. At blackjack, two people come to the table at the same time and both get blackjacks --- back to back. After that you watch their play and they are not advantage players. They don’t even know basic strategy. A guy hits two inside numbers in a row at roulette. Then he bets the outside red and black and wins six in a row!The same woman wins two lotteries in New Jersey. Two people, a father and a son, have train accidents on the same day in two separate years. Someone is hit by lightning not twice but three times. You are thinking of a friend from years back and the next day that friend contacts you on Facebook.These all seem to be amazing events. Yet, how amazing are they --- how amazing are they really?Not as amazing as you think.A great new book “The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day†by David J. Hand tackles the math behind “improbable events†and even supposedly “impossible†events.Let me give you some examples from our casino gambling world: A self-proclaimed dice controller (no not me) learns the skill from a class he took and for several trips to the casino, after practicing for several weeks, he wins --- session after session for several days. He has never won more than one trip in a row in his life. That streak must prove he has dice control ability, right? No, not really. Pure chance has wild swings in fortune for casino gamblers.A blackjack player comes upon the simplest card counting method of all time; he studies goes to the casino and loses session after session --- about 10 in a row. The card counting system must not work. No, not really. Pure chance has wild swings in fortune for casino gamblers.I can go on and on. Wild streaks; wild wins and wild losses occur in casinos; they occur all the time. Why is that so? This book will explain it all.Are there advantage players in craps and blackjack (and video poker and poker and Pai Gow Poker)? Yes. But the proof of the pudding is not a few wild streaks even if those streaks are seemingly mind-boggling. To establish advantage takes far more proof than just “improbable†events occurring.I think readers on this web site will enjoy the book and if you aren’t schooled in improbability theory the book will open your eyes.Is the book so mathematically difficult that the average reader such as me will be at a loss to understand it? No. Author David Hand has been able to make the concepts in the book totally understandable.If you are interested in the improbable (or gambling) I think this book will speak to you.Frank Scoblete author of "I Am a Card Counter: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Blackjack"
Thank you, Dr. Hand, for taking a subject about which I understood zilch and making it easy to learn. I enjoy trying to understand the world around me, and this book helped me do that.Hand rattles off the names of a ton of principles and rules (too many in my view), but still I was able to take away some of the over-arching themes for which I think he was going: that our intuition is often wrong; that our inability to understand the basics of risk, chance and probability sometimes lead us to make bad choices because we under-estimate the risks of some things and over-estimate the likelihood of others.As Hand points out, this might not have far-reaching consequences when deciding whether to spend a few bucks buying a lottery ticket. But our inability to grasp basic statistics can have life-changing consequences: whether to have a second medical test performed before plunging forward with serious treatment or whether a jury convicts someone.This was a very interesting read. If this is "statistics for dummies," as some reviewers here have derisively called it, then I'm a dummy who is a little less dumb after reading the book!
Besides just an overall understanding of mathematical probabilities this book will help apply that understanding to daily life with numerous examples. There are also references to many other great thinkers and concepts which can lead to further research and understanding. It is well researched and thought out. The organization makes sense. The book manages to never be boring despite being about a math topic. It's dumbed-down enough to appeal to a wide audience but has enough smarts in it to keep intellectuals interested as well.It helps explain things like why you might run into 6 people you know in a foreign country within a 30 minute time period, which is something that actually happened to my friend, and I recommended this book to him
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